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No end in sight to Swat Valley turmoil

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Devjyot Ghoshal | TNN

The Taliban are once again cutting a bloody swathe through Pakistan's picturesque Swat valley.

As reports appeared on Tuesday announcing a renewed Taliban onslaught in the Swat valley, there seems to be a lack of consensus as to the reasons behind the Pakistani military's loss of control in the former tourist haven. The strategically vital Valley, 120 km northwest of Islamabad, has witnessed an increasingly violent insurgency since 2007.

Last week, a Taliban commander in the region threatened to kill girls who attend school and ordered parents to stop sending their daughters to school by January 15. Strategic expert and former Indian high commissioner G Parthasarathy said: "They have been unsuccessfully fighting there for over two years. It has been a halfhearted effort and this is not because of any troop redeployment."

However, Pakistani journalist and political analyst Habib Akram disputed the reports of the debacle and felt that the fight was far from over. "There isn't a complete fall and it is really a matter of perception. The fight is continuing and is yet to be decided. But the government forces are losing ground," Akram told TOI from Lahore. He also asserted that there hasn't been any troop reduction in the narrow valley. "The government of Pakistan has officially said that if India builds up pressure on the east, then we will be compelled to reduce troops on the western border. Pakistan wouldn't reduce troops there unless it has to," he added.

Arjun Ray, a former Indian Army general, said it was in the strategic interest of Pakistan that troops stay in the Swat region. "I think the grand strategy is that Pakistan will provide the anvil and US and Nato troops will act as the hammer. If Pakistan switched troops then the Taliban will come in. But there could be a certain amount of thinning out of troops," he said.

Former external affairs minister Yashwant Sinha attributed the turmoil in the valley, better known as the Switzerland of Pakistan, to the inner machinations of the Pakistani establishment. "This is a precursor of how things are going to happen. The civilian rule in Pakistan is titular and the Pakistani Army are in cahoots with the Al Qaida. This is a deliberate ploy," Sinha said.

This article appeared in the Times of India, Kolkata edition, on January 01, 2009. The author would like to acknowledge the invaluable help of Phyza Jameel, journalist and fellow Frontline blogger, for helping him get the view from the Pakistani side. 

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