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Obama and the Armenian Question

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April 24 Demonstration 185.jpg
Campaign promises should always be taken with a pinch of salt, perhaps, but the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States has many in Turkey concerned. In particular, Obama's promise to recognize the massacre and deportation of as many as 1.5 million ethnic Armenians living in the then Ottoman Empire as genocide has Ankara worried. 

Armenian-American lobbying groups in Washington are already frantically active with 24 April, the day traditionally marking the 1915-17 massacres, just around the corner. Although previous U.S. presidents had reneged on their own campaign promises to recognize the genocide, groups such as the Armenian National Committee of  America (ANCA) expect Obama to buck the trend set by his predecessors. 

With the Obama-Biden Administration and new Congress now in place, we have the best opportunity in years to end Turkey's gag-rule on American recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

We are, of course, looking forward to President Obama honoring his pledge to recognize the Armenian Genocide, and are turning to you to help build support for proper Congressional recognition of this crime against humanity. link

There's just one problem. 

Following last year's much publicized "football diplomacy," many analysts and officials in both Yerevan and Ankara believe that relations between the two estranged neighbours could be normalized this year. Recognizing the genocide in the U.S., however, could not only set back such unprecedented progress, but also risks igniting a nationalist backlash in Turkey itself. 

Turkey's strategic importance for the U.S. also remains significant, and some would argue even more so in the aftermath of the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war. Normalized relations between Yerevan and Ankara, for example, would greatly assist efforts to negotiate a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and provide a regional counter-balance to a resurgent Russia. 

Writing for the German Marshall Fund's Real Clear World, Amberin Zaman, The Economist's Turkey correspondent (and coincidentally the wife of the U.S. Chargé d'Affaires in Armenia), summed up some of the issues which will likely weigh on Obama's mind and influence his decision, while also warning both Yerevan and Ankara not to be complacent about the future.

The prevailing wisdom in Ankara, Yerevan [...], and Washington alike is that [...] no U.S. administration has been as predisposed to genocide recognition. [...] Mindful of such dangers, Turkey last year revived attempts to make friends with Armenia and in September, Turkey's president, Abdullah Gül, became the first Turkish leader to set foot in Armenia. Turkish and Armenian diplomats have been quietly working on a deal to establish formal relations and to re-open their common border [...]. After some initial wobbles, Turkey is said to be ready to re-open the border and to go along with Armenia's demands that the proposed historical commission be addressed within a broader set of bilateral issues. Turkey believes that all of this should stave off genocide recognition by the new U.S. administration. That is why hardliners within the Armenian Diaspora seem bent on stopping Turkey and Armenia from making peace. For all the conciliatory noises coming out of Yerevan, some Armenian decision-makers may believe that Obama's victory means Armenia can push for even greater concessions from Turkey. That would be a gross miscalculation. For starters, if Obama is serious about tackling Afghanistan and pulling out of Iraq, then the United States will need Turkey more than ever before. Incirlik will probably be one of the main exit points for U.S. soldiers being rotated out of Iraq. Turkey has some 1,500 troops in Afghanistan; more could be tapped, though the Turks rule out any combat role. Indeed, many predict that once in office Obama will be more of a pragmatist than a liberal.

The new U.S. administration is therefore unlikely to make the genocide resolution a priority. [...] Obama's transition team should coax Armenia into accepting Turkey's offer before its too late. At the same time, it should remind Turkey that the security card has its limits; the longer Turkey and Armenia remain at odds, the more likely it is that the genocide resolution will pass, and with it an opportunity to curb Russian influence and to bring calm and prosperity to the Caucasus. link

Yerevan-based Armenian-American analyst Richard Giragossian agrees, pointing out that "such campaign statements were neither particularly new [...], reflecting the political considerations facing every [...] candidate for national office. [...] Turkish perception of the pro-Armenian bias of Obama [...] must be noted and duly corrected quickly." Turkey's newly won position as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council might also sway minds in Washington. 

23 April 2008.jpg




Photo: Armenian Revolutionary Federation -- Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) burn the Turkish flag, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

But, as the co-chair of the Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council stated in a recent interview, "the hard-line, nationalistic part of the diaspora will be heard much more because they speak so loudly." For them, some observers argue, security and economic issues confronting Armenia are not as important as demands for lands now inhabited by many more Turks and Kurds. 

Others, such as Taner Akçam, one of the few Turkish academics to recognize the massacres as genocide, instead argue that new approaches need to be adopted. This seems particularly relevant as Turkey slowly opens up as part of its EU membership bid and its aspirations to form a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform in the aftermath of last year's war between Russia and Georgia.

[...] Akcam argues that a long-term solution requires much more than a U.S. resolution. He says two steps are necessary: Turkey and Armenia must establish normal relations, and Turks must learn that confronting their history does not threaten their Turkish identity, but strengthens it. This means that Turks should look at the conflict not as a zero-sum game in which any Armenian gain is a Turkish loss, but as a necessary part of the process of becoming a democratic nation. It's an approach to resolving bitter historical grievances called "transitional justice," and it has been effective in helping resolve historical grievances between Germany and the Czech Republic, within South Africa and in other places.

The Armenians, too, need to rethink their approach, Akcam said. In the new paradigm, the Armenian diaspora would present its policy not as being totally against Turkey, but for a new democratic Turkey. "Until now this was a conventional war between Turkey and Armenian diaspora, and congressional resolutions were the effective weapon in this conventional war," Akcam said. "What I'm saying is we should stop thinking in these conventional ways." link

Such arguments, however, are lost on more nationalist elements such as the Amenian Revolutionary Federation -- Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D). The youth wing of the party whose main support base is in the Diaspora has already started up an online petition to oppose the normalization of relations with Turkey as well as disrupt negotiations to reach a peace deal with Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh.

In recent months, the Armenian government has signaled an imminent shift in its posture toward Armeno-Turkish relations. The AYF believes that government's approach may be significantly at odds with Armenian national interests.

The petition addresses reports of possible concessions being considered by the Armenian government as it seeks to normalize relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. In it, the AYF asks for the community's support to stand against:

A possible bilateral commission to examine the issues surrounding the Armenian Genocide;

An imminent deal to concede the liberated territories of Artsakh as a precondition for a settlement with Azerbaijan;

A growing role for Turkey as a broker in the Transcaucasus, and specifically over the Karabagh negotiations. 

link

At time of writing, however, the petition has 561 signatures while a Facebook group has even less -- just 194 members. Moreover, as a member of the ruling coalition in Armenia, critics are quick to point out that the ARF-D is ironically part of the same government seeking to achieve the objectives it opposes, but which the U.S. and Europe consider vital for stabilizing the volatile South Caucasus.

Regardless, as Armenian and Turkish lobbying groups engage in a war of words, it remains to be seen what Barack Obama decides. True, few doubt that the events of 1915 were genocide, but will Obama put U.S. foreign policy and possible rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey on the line to publicly state that while in office? The answer, it would appear, seems obvious, but we'll know for sure in a little over two months time.

Top Photo: Tsitsernakaberd Genocide Memorial, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

14 Comments

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Onnik Krikorian | February 17, 2009 4:00 PM | Reply

And it would seem that we don't have to wait so long after all. Obama will probably do what everyone expected him too -- that is, not sacrifice U.S. interests abroad and encourage the normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey:

Obama says Turkey's leadership is vital in Middle East

US president praised Turkey's role in its region during telephone conversation with Tukish PM Erdogan and President Gul.

[...]

"I would like to say that your leadership is vital in the Middle East peace process and America always understands Turkey's sensitivities," Erdogan's press office quoted Obama as telling the Turkish premier.

Obama also expressed willingness to work with Turkey in many issues such as maintaining peace in the Middle East, ending PKK terrorism and relations with Armenia.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/news_detail.php?id=36721

Obama welcomes the recent restored Armenia-Turkey dialogue

U.S. President Barack Obama called Turkish President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and had two "warm and productive" conversations, the White House said late on Monday.

[...]

Erdogan underlined the importance of the strategic cooperation. “Turkey’s stance on policies regarding the Middle East and Armenia is clear. America’s fair and impartial approach (to these issues) is important in order to prevent any damage to the bilateral relations,” Erdogan was quoted as telling to Obama.

The U.S. president welcomed the recent restored dialogue between Turkey and Armenia, signaling under the existing circumstances he would refrain from taking any step that would harm these efforts.

The statement said Obama expressed willingness to work with Turkey on many issues such as maintaining peace in the Middle East, ending PKK terrorism and relations with Armenia.

http://www.armradio.am/news/?part=pol&id=14407

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Onnik Krikorian | February 18, 2009 8:15 AM | Reply

The Eurasia Daily Monitor has just published an article which explains why Obama has to be careful. Armenia and Turkey are believed to be very close to normalizing relations and opening the border.

Armenia and Turkey Make Progress on Delicate Task of Restoring Relations

After months of intensive negotiations, Armenia and Turkey appear to be heading toward a full normalization of their historically strained relations that could redraw the region's geopolitical map. Such a possibility has become even more likely after the latest flurry of face-to-face contacts between Turkish and Armenian leaders.

The foreign ministers of the two neighboring states have met frequently in recent months to try to build on an unprecedented Turkish-Armenian rapprochement that began shortly after Serzh Sarkisian became Armenia's new president in April 2008. His Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, underscored the seriousness of the process in September when he paid a historic visit to Yerevan, where together he and Sarkisian watched the first match ever held between the Armenian and Turkish national soccer teams.

[...]

The apparent change in Turkish policy toward Armenia has been facilitated by renewed hopes for a near-term solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. [...] The mediating powers hope to broker a framework peace accord by next summer. Turkish newspapers, citing unnamed Turkish officials, disclosed last week some details of what they called Nagorno-Karabakh-related understandings already reached by the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders.

Ankara's apparent readiness to end its long-standing linkage between Nagorno-Karabakh peace and improved Turkish-Armenian relations may well have been precipitated by the prospect of the new U.S. administration officially recognizing the 1915 slaughter of more than a million Ottoman Armenians as genocide. [...] Influential Armenian lobbying groups in Washington led by pro-Armenian lawmakers stepped up their pressure on the Obama administration to honor these campaign pledges last week by introducing a new draft genocide resolution in both houses of the U.S. Congress.

The administration of former President George W. Bush went to great lengths to block the passage of a similar resolution by the House of Representatives in late 2007. Whether the Obama administration will exert similar pressure on Congress is still an open question. [...] The Armenian lobby in the United States has rarely acted on Yerevan's objections, and it is even less likely to do so at this delicate juncture. link

Basically, Obama has to choose between demands from lobbying groups in the Armenian-American Diaspora or U.S. foreign policy objectives and the chance to achieve peace and stability in the South Caucasus.

Of course, the possibility for Armenia and Turkey to resolve their differences has to happen this year. Senior Armenian officials, however, privately say that the border could open this year.

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Onnik Krikorian | February 18, 2009 11:50 AM | Reply

ISTANBUL - In an attempt to break stereotypes between the countries, university students have organized a Turkish-Armenian dialogue camp, held in the central Anatolian city of Nevşehir.

The camp’s objective was to make acquaintances between Turkish and Armenian university students to overcome existing prejudices between the two nations. Eighty university students from Turkey and 20 from Armenia spent a week in a hotel in Ürgüp, an important tourism center of the Cappadocia region, the Doğan news agency reported yesterday.

The project was initiated by the Turkish University Students’ Approaches (Türkiye Üniversiteleri Öğrenci Yaklaşımları) and was also sponsored by the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation, or TESEV, the Helsinki Citizens Assembly and daily Agos.

[...]

Eighty university students from Turkey and 20 from Armenia spent a week in a hotel in Ürgüp, an important tourism center of the Cappadocia region, the Doğan news agency reported yesterday.

The project was initiated by the Turkish University Students’ Approaches (Türkiye Üniversiteleri Öğrenci Yaklaşımları) and was also sponsored by the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation, or TESEV, the Helsinki Citizens Assembly and daily Agos.

[...]

We believe that relations between these two sister nations should be founded on the basis of peace and friendship and not on the dilemma of deportation or genocide. This is only possible by getting together through projects and campaigns, which we believe will develop quickly with the active participation of young people," read the statement.

"The dialogue between Turkish and Armenian students will pave the way for ideas toward a solution. Our dialogue camp will be the first step in this process," it read.

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/domestic/11017482.asp?gid=244

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Ani | February 18, 2009 9:51 PM | Reply

This is a pretty intriguing statement:

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/64612/turkey-steps-up-talks-with-armenia-as-april-looms.html

[...]
It is not so important whether or not US President Barack Obama utters the word "genocide" in his statement on April 24 -- the day when Armenians commemorate the killings of Anatolian Armenians perpetrated by the Ottoman Empire during World War I, which Armenians claim constituted genocide. Rather, it is the climate that will be created afterward that may be concerning, Laciner said, adding, "Dialogue between Armenia and Turkey could break off."

There is also worry of a possible explosion of nationalist sentiment in Turkey, as predicted by Today's Zaman columnist Omer Taspinar, if a House resolution is adopted.

Taspınar wrote in a Jan. 26 article that "In case the Armenian genocide recognition resolution goes forward and Congress votes in favor of it before March 29, things will go from bad to worse," considering the political calendar in Turkey, where local elections will be held on March 29.
[...]
-----------------------------------

But what about after March 29? It all still seems possible to me, but time will tell.

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Ani | February 18, 2009 9:51 PM | Reply

This is a pretty intriguing statement:

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/64612/turkey-steps-up-talks-with-armenia-as-april-looms.html

[...]
It is not so important whether or not US President Barack Obama utters the word "genocide" in his statement on April 24 -- the day when Armenians commemorate the killings of Anatolian Armenians perpetrated by the Ottoman Empire during World War I, which Armenians claim constituted genocide. Rather, it is the climate that will be created afterward that may be concerning, Laciner said, adding, "Dialogue between Armenia and Turkey could break off."

There is also worry of a possible explosion of nationalist sentiment in Turkey, as predicted by Today's Zaman columnist Omer Taspinar, if a House resolution is adopted.

Taspınar wrote in a Jan. 26 article that "In case the Armenian genocide recognition resolution goes forward and Congress votes in favor of it before March 29, things will go from bad to worse," considering the political calendar in Turkey, where local elections will be held on March 29.
[...]
-----------------------------------

But what about after March 29? It all still seems possible to me, but time will tell.

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Onnik Krikorian | February 19, 2009 6:17 PM | Reply

In an interesting development, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) quoted above will possibly be under investigation for lobbying violations ahead of 24 April. There's no doubt the timing is connected to new moves to have the U.S. and Obama recognize the genocide, but it's also true that ANCA is linked to the ARF-D and unlikely to welcome any improved ties with Turkey.

WASHINGTON - A high-profile ethics organization on Wednesday asked federal agencies to investigate the Armenian National Committee of America for alleged campaign-finance and lobbying violations.

In a seven-page complaint, the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington asserts that the Armenian-American group failed to register either as a domestic lobbying group or as a foreign agent despite its political work and its close ties to an Armenian political party.

[...]

Armenian National Committee of America officials denounced the charges as unfounded.

[...]

The committee hasn't registered as a lobbyist with either the House of Representatives or the Senate. [...]

Citing news accounts, a U.S. Embassy study and the research of Heather Gregg, an assistant professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., the complaint contends that the Armenian National Committee of America is "an arm" of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, a political party that's part of Armenia's ruling coalition.

Agents of foreign political parties are required to register with the Justice Department.

http://www.kansas.com/514/story/704397.html

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Roy Greenfield | February 24, 2009 5:39 PM | Reply

Hello Onnik - I might offer a few marginal observations upon reading your article above;

- As a longstanding Clinton progressive whom worked on Bill's campaigns in the '90's and again last year for Hillary's unsuccessful nomination run, I naturally do not see any aversion from Obama, to backpedal from myriad campaign promises. Disclosing my bias here, but I think he'll do it in a second when demands of the office befit that.

- If I read properly above, Obama will try a fence-straddle of simply endorsing the fledgling normalization process between the nations, and specific support for the historical commission as a vehicle for righting the record regarding 1915-17. Now you're on both sides at once, not so bad... ;^)

- For years we received presumably accurate reports, of the horrible suffering of the Kurds under Saddam Hussein. After Bush's pre-fixed invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent quagmire produced by his being wrong on every aspect of it, Joe Biden and others believed circa 2004 that the only possible solution was a sub-divide of autonomous regions or new nations, from the prior Iraq. Of which the Kurds, would surely be first in line.

However Bush et al, never came near supporting that goal - out of obvious dependence on Turkey.

You have me curious now to watch for a position on the Armenian question, from my gal Hillary...

- Roy Greenfield
Cincinnati, Ohio


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Onnik Krikorian | February 25, 2009 9:17 AM | Reply

Roy, Your second paragraph about trying to find the balance seems to be the most obvious course, but as you say, nobody really knows and yes, everyone is waiting. I think the factors which will decide matters will be whatever is discussed in private (i.e. to ascertain whether the prospect of the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is genuine and will happen this year) and the lobbying/discussion which will take place publicly and privately in Congress. We're all as curious as you are, I think.

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Onnik Krikorian | February 28, 2009 5:00 PM | Reply

It's almost April, so Washington is gearing up for another performance of the "Armenian Genocide Resolution Spectacular," a regular event since 1984. Here's the historical plotline: the Armenian-American lobby gets a few U.S. congressmen to sponsor a resolution recognizing the 1915 massacre of Armenians in what is now Eastern Turkey as a "genocide." Then other members of the House are induced to support it. (Members of the House may not be history buffs, but they understand the importance of stroking a powerful domestic lobby.) Next, the Turkish government says Turkey is too important to be insulted like this. In response, the American administration, recognizing that Turkey is indeed a critical NATO ally whose Incirlik Air Base is vital to the Iraq mission, starts twisting congressional arms to abandon the resolution. Offstage, the Israeli lobby, generally keen to boost Turkish-Israeli relations (though less so this year), works against the resolution. Finally, the House leadership reluctantly shelves the whole thing and the curtain falls.

Before staging this year's performance, however, Congress should note that hitherto frozen relations between Armenia and Turkey are now showing signs of melting, and that this may be the first step toward reconciling the Turkish and Armenian peoples.

[...]

Progress is not as implausible as it sounds. In the early days of the Republic, Kemal Atatürk, who was not personally implicated, described the Armenian massacres as "shameful acts." No ex-Ottoman officials were investigated, however, as Turkey needed the newly minted heroes of its War of Independence to have no stain on their characters. Today, Erdogan will accept an investigation. In return, Armenia must accept a reciprocal investigation into the Ottoman Armenians, who fought with the sultan's Russian enemy, and their responsibility for massacres of Turks and Kurds. Weaving together these two violently opposed historical perspectives will take time and patience. As important as the final answer, however, is the development of empathy across the divide.

Congress can help keep the path to reconciliation open if it is willing to deny the Armenian-American lobby the instant gratification of a genocide resolution. [...] For its part, the Armenian diaspora might even support reconciliation if only as its second choice. Finally, good relations between Turkey and Armenia would further U.S. objectives in the Caucasus. [...] Congress and others should recognize that this year holds real promise for the beginning of reconciliation between the Turkish and Armenian peoples. If nothing comes of it, Congress can always return to a resolution.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/186973

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Onnik Krikorian | March 17, 2009 8:12 AM | Reply

The LA Times carries more on the dilemma facing Obama ahead of his 5 April trip to Turkey and the 24 April commemoration as he consideres U.S. interests in the Caucasus and Middle East as well as progress in efforts to normalize ties between Armenia and Turkey.

Administration officials are considering postponing a presidential statement, citing progress toward a thaw in relations between Turkey and neighboring Armenia. Further signs of warming -- such as talk of reopening border crossings -- would strengthen arguments that a U.S. statement could imperil the progress. link

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Ani | March 17, 2009 8:50 PM | Reply

The Genocide Recognition resolution was introduced into Congress today, so I guess we'll see what happens fairly soon now:

Today, Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) announced the introduction of a resolution recognizing and commemorating the Armenian Genocide. The resolution calls on the President and the U.S. Government to properly recognize the atrocities that occurred in Armenia beginning in 1915, and which resulted in 1.5 million deaths, as genocide. Rep. Schiff authored the resolution with George Radanovich (R-CA), Frank Pallone (D-NJ) and Mark Kirk (R-IL).

[...]

Last week, Rep. Schiff and the other coauthors of the resolution wrote to President Obama lauding him for his principled record of recognizing the Armenian Genocide. The letter asked the President to make a strong statement of genocide recognition on April 24th – as President Reagan did more than 20 years ago.

“The Affirmation of the U.S. Record on the Armenian Genocide” resolution has the bipartisan support of 77 original co-sponsors in the House of Representatives. It calls on the President to “ensure that the foreign policy of the United States reflects appropriate understanding” of the “Armenian Genocide” and to “accurately characterize the systematic and deliberate annihilation of 1,500,000 Armenians as genocide.”

[...] link

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Onnik Krikorian | March 18, 2009 5:41 PM | Reply

The Channel 4 blog also has more on the latest developments, and kindly links to one of my Global Voices Online post's on April 24 as well.

[...] balance the political benefit of uttering the “g” word with Washington’s need to find new supply routes for US forces in Afghanistan, possibly via Turkey. Balance it too with Turkey’s desire to act as a mediator with Syria and Iran on America’s behalf.

And the Turks and Armenians don’t need another row to stop them from becoming friends. Last September, Turkey’s president visited Armenia, the first Turkish head of state to do so. There’s talk of opening the border, of opening embassies.

Not long after the Soviet Union collapsed, I flew on a US army transport plane from Turkey to Armenia, delivering aid to the broken republic. It was one of the first direct flights ever and only took about an hour.

But this is 2009, and more direct contact between the two is way overdue. The Iron Curtain may have come down across Europe, but Turkey and Armenia have yet to tear down theirs.

This is not to say that Turkey doesn’t have to reckon with its past - or rather with the actions of Ottoman officials before the Republic of Turkey came into being.

“But Obama uttering the word ‘genocide’? How is that going to help?” I asked myself, as I watched the Turk and the Armenian head home from dinner, back to their 18-month-old child. link

Meanwhile, RFE/RL reports that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has spoken to Armenian President Serge Sargsyan, and normalizing ties between Armenia and Turkey was one of the subjects discussed.

President Serzh Sarkisian discussed a wide range of issues, including Armenia’s ongoing rapprochement with Turkey, in a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reported by his office on Wednesday.

[...]

The statement said that Sarkisian and Clinton also touched upon international efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and “the Turkish-Armenian political dialogue.” It gave no details.

The U.S. State Department issued no statements on Clinton’s first-ever conversation with the Armenian leader. The acting department spokesman, Robert Wood, did not mention it at a daily press briefing in Washington on Tuesday.

The current and previous U.S. administrations have welcomed the dramatic thaw in the traditionally strained Turkish-Armenian relations. After months of high-level negotiations, the two neighboring states appear to be on the verge of to establishing diplomatic relations and opening their border. link

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Onnik Krikorian | March 27, 2009 8:40 AM | Reply

TURKEY AND Armenia are poised to normalise relations non-existent since 1993. The move would be a historic reconciliation between two traditional enemies divided by strategic differences in the Caucasus and the Ottoman Empire’s ethnic cleansing of Armenians in 1915.

Analysts following two years of secret talks said the two sides have now agreed on a sweeping package that includes opening a shared border closed since 1993, beginning diplomatic relations and setting up a bilateral intergovernmental commission on issues ranging from customs, tax and public health to history.

Turkey is also expected to release a “road map” on a solution on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan that has been under de facto Armenian control since 1994. “The parameters of the deal are very much set,” said Hugh Pope, the Turkey project director for International Crisis Group, which is currently working on a report about Turkish-Armenian relations.

“The only thing holding things back now is nerves.”

Analysts in Yerevan said the two governments have tentatively agreed to reveal the package on April 16th, when Turkey’s foreign minister is expected to fly to Yerevan for talks.

Senior Turkish foreign policy officials refused to confirm the date. The Armenian foreign ministry was unavailable for comment.

And although it's unlikely that Armenian concerns figure anywhere near as highly in Obama's foreign policy as the need for Turkey's support and assistance over Iraq and Afghanistan, there are also other regional implications for a genuine normalization of ties as opposed to words to appease an ethnic Armenian electorate in the U.S.:

Thomas de Waal, author of a highly regarded book on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, thinks the deal has a lot to do with changes in Russia’s south Caucasian policy since it went to war with Georgia in August 2008.

“The war really drove home Armenia’s reliance on Georgia as a trade conduit,” he said.

“Russia saw that blowing up one Georgian bridge was enough to deprive [its Armenian ally] of imports for a week. Plus the fact is that Russia now owns Armenia’s economy. If you own the telecom sector and railways, opening up the border is in your interest.”

[...]

For de Waal, meanwhile, the most important implication of a Turkish-Armenian deal is that it could spur Armenian-Azeri peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh which he describes as being “a parody”.

“Historically the Armenian-Azeri dispute is but a brawl compared to the Armenian-Turkish dispute,” he said.

“If the Turks are doing a deal with Armenia, there is no reason whatsoever for Armenia and Azerbaijan not to be able to . . . talk constructively.”

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0327/1224243552256.html

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Onnik Krikorian | April 2, 2009 8:18 AM | Reply

Some promising news from the Wall Street Journal:

Turkey and Armenia could soon announce a deal aimed at reopening their border and restoring relations, according to diplomats, a move that could help stabilize a region that's increasingly important as a transit route for oil and gas.

The timing of the deal is being choreographed with the schedule of U.S. President Barack Obama, who visits Turkey next week, these people say.

[...]

[...] an accord would be seen in Western capitals as a major potential success that could help to open up and stabilize the Caucasus. The region is studded with unresolved conflicts and hostile borders, and saw war between Russia and Georgia in August.

Normalizing relations between Turkey and Armenia would "create a new and positive dynamic" in relations across the region, "as well as in developing the economic and transport links we have been pursuing ever since the collapse of the former Soviet Union," said U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew J. Bryza, the State Department's point man in the Caucasus.

Mr. Bryza travels to Azerbaijan Thursday to discuss how a Turkish-Armenian agreement could help revive efforts for a settlement on Nagorno-Karabakh.

[...]

One date under discussion for signing the deal with Armenia, diplomats say, is April 16. But Mr. Ünlühisarcikli said he believes Turkey and Armenia won't be ready to sign the deal before April 24, and Turkey instead will "signal" its commitment to reopen the borders in the hope that will be enough for Washington.

Russia's invasion of Georgia last August opened the door for Turkey to become more heavily engaged in the Caucasus. The war showed the limitations of U.S. and EU influence in the region and exposed the extent of Armenia's isolation. When Russia cut Georgia's main East-West railway by blowing up a bridge in August, it also cut off the dominant supply route to Armenia, a close Russian ally.

[...] link

What do you think?